How Tariffs Are Disrupting Global Paper Supply Chains
Global trade tensions are increasingly spilling over into the paper industry. In recent years (2023–2025), a series of tariffs and counter-tariffs have targeted everything from raw wood pulp to finished paper products. This has upended traditional supply chains for coated printing paper, packaging board, and other commercial paper stocks. The impacts – ranging from supply shortages and volatile prices to longer lead times – are being felt worldwide, with U.S. paper buyers and print producers especially hard hit. Below, we examine the key tariff actions and their consequences, and discuss how print businesses can adapt in this turbulent landscape.
U.S. Tariffs on Pulp and Paper Imports
Broad Tariff Measures: The United States has introduced sweeping tariffs on multiple trading partners’ paper-related exports. In early 2025, the U.S. imposed blanket tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% tariff on most other countries’ goods. China, already long subject to high U.S. duties on paper, faced an additional tariff hike (U.S. duties on Chinese paper products now effectively exceed 100% in many cases). Even allies like the European Union and India were not exempt – India’s paper exports to the U.S. were slapped with a 25–26% duty, prompting Indian mills to seek alternative markets. These moves are part of a broader trade strategy that U.S. officials claim is about protecting industries and addressing unfair trade, but they have introduced severe strains in paper supply channels.
Pulp Tariffs – Brazil and Canada: Among the most disruptive measures were new U.S. tariffs on imported wood pulp. Brazil, the world’s largest pulp exporter, saw a 10% U.S. tariff placed on its bleached hardwood pulp shipments. As a result, Brazilian pulp giant Suzano reported a 20% drop in pulp exports to the U.S., squeezing supplies for American tissue and paper producers. Likewise, U.S. tariffs on Canadian pulp and paper (25% on virtually all Canadian products) threaten a critical supply line. Canada is the leading source of bleached softwood kraft pulp – about 40% of U.S. softwood pulp imports – as well as a major supplier of printing and packaging papers. American mills traditionally integrate domestic pulp, but many rely on Canadian fiber for specific grades and volume. The tariffs have made these imports costlier or outright uneconomical, endangering the integrated North American supply network.
North American Paper Trade Disrupted: The U.S.-Canada paper trade exemplifies a tightly interwoven supply chain now under strain. In 2024, two-way trade in pulp and paper between the U.S. and Canada exceeded $14 billion. With steep duties in place, that exchange is faltering. Canadian mills provide a significant share of packaging boxboard and newsprint for U.S. markets; in fact, U.S. boxboard (especially high-quality solid bleached sulfate (SBS) used in premium packaging) was heavily dependent on Canadian imports. Industry analysts warn that tariffs on Canadian paper could create a U.S. supply imbalance in packaging grades, since SBS is less readily produced domestically than other boards. Similarly, U.S. newspapers have relied on Canadian newsprint; new tariffs on newsprint have driven up costs sharply, forcing some local publishers to cut page counts or consider closures to survive.
Trade Disputes in Europe and Asia
EU Paper Tariffs and Disputes: The European Union has been drawn into the fray through both its own trade defenses and as a target of U.S. tariffs. On one hand, the EU has continued anti-dumping duties against imports of Chinese coated paper – recently extending duties in the range of 27%–35% on Chinese coated fine paper through 2025. This policy helps protect European paper producers but also limits Europe’s access to low-cost coated stock from China. On the other hand, Europe itself became a tariff target in 2025: the U.S. announced new import tariffs of around 20% on various EU goods (part of a dispute centered on metals and other sectors). In response, the EU prepared a counter-tariff package of about €26 billion, including duties on U.S. paper and wood products (notably toilet paper and wood pulp). While some of these EU-U.S. measures were delayed or negotiated, the mere threat created uncertainty. European paper exporters, who ship significant volumes of specialty paper and carton board to America, suddenly faced potential loss of the U.S. market.
Case in Point – Folding Carton Board: Europe exports roughly 600,000 tonnes per year of folding boxboard (a coated packaging board) to the U.S.. There are no U.S. manufacturers of certain folding boxboard grades, meaning American packaging companies depend on European suppliers for those materials. Tariffs would make these imports far more expensive or cut them off entirely. European suppliers have warned that U.S. clients would see immediate price hikes – indeed, one major cartonboard producer preemptively announced a 20% price increase to U.S. customers to offset anticipated tariffs. In Europe, the flip side of this dynamic is potential oversupply: if U.S. demand drops, surplus cartonboard may flood the European market, pressuring local prices and prompting mill downtime.
China and Other Retaliatory Moves: China, which had been targeted by U.S. paper tariffs for over a decade, has hit back with its own measures. During the earlier trade war, China imposed 25% duties on imports of U.S. paper and paperboard, as well as on recycled fiber feedstocks. In the latest round of disputes, Chinese authorities signaled they would retaliate further after the 2025 U.S. tariff escalations. This could mean China raising tariffs on U.S. wood pulp or recovered paper (China is a major buyer of U.S. pulp and scrap paper for recycling), redirecting orders to South American and European pulp suppliers. Other nations have also responded in kind: Canada announced C$30 billion in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods – including pulp, paper, and packaging materials – to counter the U.S. duties. These counter-tariffs make many cross-border transactions four-way affairs, as U.S. exporters of paper products (from wood pulp to finished packaging) now face barriers selling into key foreign markets. The upshot is a fragmenting global trade environment, where each major economic bloc is either raising trade walls or adjusting to those erected by others.
Volatility in Coated Paper, Packaging Board, and Other Stocks
The fallout from these tariff battles is highly grade-specific in the paper industry. Coated graphic papers (used in magazines, marketing collateral, and commercial printing) were already in tight supply due to mill closures and prior trade duties. New tariffs have compounded this by limiting imports that helped meet U.S. demand. For example, in 2024 the U.S. imported over 300,000 tonnes of coated paper from countries like South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia – supplies that filled the gap left by restricted Chinese paper. However, many of those imports are now constrained by fresh U.S. tariffs on a wider array of countries. Printers who rely on quality coated sheets face price surges and scrambling for alternative suppliers. Industry reports noted that by late 2024, some coated paper prices had jumped 20% or more year-over-year amid tariff rumors and logistics issues.
Packaging Board: Tariff disruptions are perhaps even more pronounced in packaging grades. Solid bleached sulfate (SBS) board, prized for packaging cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, and food, was commonly imported from Canadian and European mills. With a tariff wall up, U.S. packaging converters must seek domestic SBS supply – which is limited – or substitute other board types. Mills producing coated recycled board (CRB) or coated unbleached kraft (CUK) (used in cereal boxes, beverage carriers, etc.) may see a demand spike, but those materials have different performance characteristics and availability. Some package printers are qualifying new substrates from non-tariffed sources (for instance, an Asian or South American mill not yet hit by U.S. duties), but such shifts take time and testing. Meanwhile, packaging costs are rising. Analysts forecast that U.S. boxboard prices would inflate significantly if imports from Canada and Europe recede, given the already tight domestic capacity. Early signs in 2025 show precisely that: U.S. buyers reported paying hefty premiums to secure paperboard, or waiting through extended lead times as overseas orders are re-routed and customs-cleared under new fee schedules.
Industrial Papers and Other Effects: Even less visible paper products are experiencing turbulence. Newsprint, often overlooked in trade discussions, became a hot-button example once tariffs hit Canada. U.S. news publishers suddenly faced a throwback to the 2018 newsprint tariff crisis – higher newsprint costs directly threaten the viability of smaller newspapers. According to the News Media Alliance, some local papers in the U.S. are now contemplating layoffs or print schedule cutbacks to offset rising newsprint and printing expenses. On the tissue and hygiene front, the Brazilian pulp duty has raised input costs for tissue mills. Market watchers have even speculated about toilet paper shortages or price hikes, drawing parallels to the pandemic, as U.S. tissue manufacturers grapple with more expensive pulp and potentially insufficient supply. In short, tariffs on raw materials like pulp cascade into finished goods: consumers may feel the pinch through costlier books, magazines, packaging, and everyday paper products.
Consequences for Printers: Shortages, Prices, and Lead Times
For commercial and industrial print providers, these supply chain disruptions translate into operational challenges on multiple fronts:
Supply Shortages: Many printers report difficulty obtaining certain paper stocks at all. Allocation and rationing have returned for high-demand grades – mills prioritize long-term or larger customers, leaving smaller print shops scrambling. A U.S. commercial printer might find that the specific gloss coated sheet they use for a client’s catalog is backordered for months due to an import shortfall. In packaging, a converter may have to delay production because the required paperboard is stuck in transit or tied up by tariff paperwork. These scarcity issues hit smaller and mid-sized printers hardest, since they lack the buying power to secure inventory in a tight market.
Soaring Costs: Not only are prices rising, but they are volatile and unpredictable. Tariffs function like a tax, and suppliers have largely passed those costs down the line. Industry surveys in early 2025 found that two-thirds of printing companies expected their material costs to increase at least 10% in the near term. In practice, many have seen even sharper spikes on specific items: one print CEO noted paper price increases of 20–40% on various grades over the past year. Such inflation squeezes profit margins for printers who often operate with fixed-price contracts. It also forces difficult conversations about raising print prices for customers. Printers are caught between absorbing the extra costs (untenable for long) or risking client loss by charging more.
Extended Lead Times and Uncertainty: Global shipping delays were already an issue during the pandemic years; tariffs exacerbate this by adding bureaucracy and rerouting of supply chains. Where a printer used to get a shipment of paper from abroad in, say, 8 weeks, it might now take 10–12 weeks with customs clearance under new duties. Some overseas mills have scaled back exports to the U.S. entirely to avoid tariff exposure, so printers must find new sources in unfamiliar regions, further extending procurement timelines. The uncertainty of trade negotiations adds to the problem – if tariffs are imposed, then paused, then reimposed, it becomes very hard to plan inventory. Printers are finding that just-in-time inventory strategies no longer work; many now order paper months in advance or keep extra stock on hand “just in case,” tying up cash in inventory. As one print shop manager put it, paper supply has become a timing game – you grab whatever you can, whenever it’s available.
Shifts in Sourcing and Workflow: In response to these pressures, some U.S. print providers are changing their sourcing mix. They are qualifying new papers from alternate mills or countries not caught in the tariff crossfire. For instance, if Canadian coated paper is too expensive, a printer might trial a South American or domestic sheet as a replacement. In some cases, printing companies are adjusting their equipment or workflow to handle slightly different substrates (e.g. a thicker or thinner sheet than usual) that are more obtainable. Such shifts require flexibility – press operators must tweak settings for the new stock, and print color profiles or finishing processes might need recalibration. There can also be quality considerations; not all substitutes perform identically. Printers thus walk a fine line, maintaining output quality while experimenting with different inputs due to necessity.
Mitigating Risk: Strategies for Print Businesses
Amid these upheavals, DPi’s print system customers – from commercial print shops to packaging producers – need proactive strategies to navigate the uncertainty. Here are several approaches print businesses are using to mitigate tariff-induced risks:
Diversify Sourcing: Relying on a single country or supplier for critical paper stocks is high-risk in a tariff war. Printers should cultivate a broader network of suppliers across multiple regions. By qualifying papers from different mills (domestic and international), a print provider gains alternatives if one source becomes cost-prohibitive or unreliable. For example, some U.S. printers who traditionally imported all their coated stock from one country are now splitting orders among suppliers in Europe, Latin America, and the U.S. to spread the risk. Diversification also means staying alert to new market entrants – if, say, an Asian mill not hit by tariffs offers a comparable product, it may be worth testing. Over time, having multiple sourcing options creates competition that can help stabilize pricing as well.
Smarter Inventory Planning: With longer lead times and potential shortages, inventory management becomes a critical skill. Printers are moving away from just-in-time inventory models and toward building safety stocks of key papers. This doesn’t imply reckless hoarding, but rather maintaining a buffer supply (perhaps a few extra weeks or months worth of usage) for the most essential grades. Businesses should also follow trade developments closely – if a new tariff is announced to start next quarter, it could be prudent to buy forward and import a larger shipment now before the duty kicks in. Many printers have also improved their forecasting in collaboration with customers, encouraging clients to confirm print orders further ahead of time so that paper can be secured well in advance. In sum, careful planning and a bit of hedging inventory can prevent panic when tariffs suddenly disrupt normal supply lines.
Flexible Substrate Specifications: In a constrained market, the exact originally-specified paper may not always be available or economical. Leading print companies are increasing their flexibility by re-specifying substrates when needed – with client approval – to use a close equivalent that is more readily obtainable. This could mean printing a brochure on a 80# text gloss from a different brand if the usual 100# text silk is unavailable, or using a slightly heavier packaging board grade if the precise caliper carton stock is in shortage. Educating customers is key here: many print buyers have become more amenable to paper substitutions or minor spec adjustments once the situation is explained. Printers should leverage their expertise to reassure clients that an alternate paper will still meet the project’s needs (and may be the only way to avoid delays). Ensuring presses and finishing equipment can handle a range of substrates is also part of this flexibility. Print system providers like DPi can help by verifying that their machinery and software accommodate various paper weights and coatings, enabling customers to pivot among substrates with minimal downtime. The goal is to build resilience by not being overly rigid on one particular paper spec – as long as print quality and functionality remain high, adaptability can be a lifesaver.
Cost Management and Collaboration: Finally, print providers should openly communicate with both their suppliers and clients to manage the cost implications. Engaging in supplier partnerships – for instance, committing to volume contracts in exchange for more stable pricing or priority allocation – can secure better terms in a volatile market. On the client side, printers may need to implement surcharge clauses or periodic price reviews tied to paper cost fluctuations, rather than fixed long-term pricing that could become unviable. Many customers, facing their own pressures, will understand that an extraordinary situation is driving these adjustments. Printers can add value by advising clients on design tweaks that economize on paper (such as slightly smaller formats or efficient imposition to reduce waste). Internally, improving press efficiencies and reducing spoilage is more important than ever to get the most out of every pricey sheet. In short, controlling costs across the workflow and maintaining transparency with customers can help share the burden of tariff fallout.
Outlook
The tariff disruptions to the global paper supply chain present a formidable challenge that is still unfolding. Trade policies in the U.S., EU, China, and elsewhere may continue to evolve unpredictably, which means printers and packaging converters must stay vigilant. While domestic paper manufacturing might see short-term gains from protectionist measures, the industry as a whole thrives on stability and scale – and uncertainty in supply chains benefits nobody in the long run. For U.S. commercial and industrial printers, the past two years have underscored the importance of agility: those who have diversified their supplier base, planned ahead, and upgraded their systems for flexibility are riding out the turmoil more smoothly.
DPi’s perspective for its print system users is one of cautious optimism: by implementing the risk mitigation strategies above, print businesses can buffer themselves against trade shocks. Tariffs and trade barriers may be outside any company’s control, but resilience and adaptability are firmly within it. In a world of shifting trade winds, the nimble and informed printer will be best positioned to keep delivering for customers – even if the paper in stock today isn’t quite the same as yesterday’s.
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